The House plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would hit one group of voters especially hard: older, rural voters who were crucial to President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.
The House plan would offer tax credits based on income and age, but the net effect would be a drop in federal subsidies for people who are older, who have a lower income and who live in high-premium areas, according to an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. When you put those elements together, Trump’s voters appear to take the biggest hits.
Older voters were a big part of Trump’s winning 2016 coalition. He won 52 percent of the vote among all voters 45 or older.
A county-level analysis from KFF looked at how the tax credits for various age and income groups in the House plan compared to the subsidies offered by the Affordable Care Act. When you compare those numbers to the 2016 election results, a pattern emerges. Counties that voted for Trump would see a bigger drop in the tax credits designed to make insurance premiums more affordable.